LTS kernels aren’t more or less stable. Rather, they have been selected by the kernel maintainers to get security fixes backported to them for a certain time.

Ubuntu does the same thing for the kernels on their LTS versions (technically they usually are not LTS kernels since canonical supports them instead of kernel team)

Overall I’d suggest going with what the distro provides unless you have very new hardware, in which case a newer kernel may be required

LTS just means Long Term Support in case you weren’t aware. It means no new development is happening, but security exploits will be patched as soon as they arise.

If you just want stability, LTS is the way to go. If you want all the cutting edge bells and whistles and are okay with potentially some instability (but probably not much) then use the latest version.

If your device isn’t connected to the internet during general use then I wouldn’t worry too much about updating anything. Security fixes aren’t important if there’s no way to connect to your device.

How likely is my system to break with the standard kernel?

Unlikely. Standard releases are still pretty stable.

Depends on the hardware you have. The fact you’re asking this means these latest features wouldn’t mean anything to you. I doubt you’d actually notice any difference.

My advice: use the LTS kernel if that’s what your distro provides, only change if you find some hardware not working.

Unless you’re running a server, no.

If you want stability use the latest Debian. The point of those LTS kernels is more and more supporting IoT and other devices you can’t simply upgrade, but you want to keep secure… regular use cases can just usa a stable disto like Debian and you’ll never notice any kernel related issues.

Do you need those features? If not, go LTS. LTS means you’ll have to update the distro less frequently than latest.

If you want those features, go non-LTS, there’s no other choice. If you don’t want them, go LTS, it’s less of a hassle.