

Personally, basically no one I know uses the app stores on windows or macos much. These app stores are actually functional in that they have proprietary apps and allow purchases. There is basically 0 chance Linux will become popular if you can only install things through an app store (especially those that make it hard/impossible to buy proprietary apps). Additionally, desktop Linux is not particularly secure anyway. Flatpaks are helpful here, but most require manual tuning of their sandbox to actually be secure, which the average user is 100% not gonna do. On top of this, what do you do when an app is not available in your curated app store? Do you download it directly online? Do you trust some random repository you find online that can be filled with who knows what at a later point? Or do you just say “oh well sucks to be you I guess?” If you download it directly online, then it may not even have dependency information. If it doesn’t embed dependency information, then it’s basically useless to your average person. It also has the problem you mentioned of someone downloading the wrong executable. Likewise, the other two options are IMO just not viable.
IMO, the only way for a package manager/app store solution to work is:
Basically, it needs to be an iOS/Android situation, with a similarly large company backing it. I should also note that it’s possible to install malware on iOS/Android, just harder, and the scope is usually less severe because of sandboxing.
EDIT: Also, it’s entirely possible to do one-click installs in a “safe” way, by requiring that developers get their apps signed by whoever makes the distro (like macos gatekeeper or whatever it’s called).
EDIT 2: I should also note that just being “different” is enough for people not to use something. If something basic, like the way to install apps, is different enough, people may just decide they don’t like it. My relatives would likely do this, for instance.
Probably more.
EDIT: Something like Lutris should probably be integrated into the OS. Installing non-Steam games is a minor hassle at the moment IMO.